The NBA draft is not a foolproof fix for a franchise's failures.The Atlanta Hawks, for example, have had a lottery pick 10 timessince 1985 without seeing much improvement.
But they surely are the exception to a rule that simply states: Ateam that garners the No. 1 overall draft pick usually reaps greatrewards on and off the court; in the standings and the jewelrystore.
Yes, winning is everything given the history of the NBA draft. Asingle player can change the fortune of a franchise. And that's whatthe Grizzlies are counting on when they enter Tuesday's draftlottery with the most four-digit combinations of any team hoping toland the top overall selection.
It seems that there are certain drafts where there is at leastone player who many believe projects as a future NBA superstar. Thisyear, there are two, and there is a consensus on the talent drop-off following Ohio State's Greg Oden and Texas' Kevin Durant.
Arguably in no other sport is the top player in the draft figuredto make more of an impact. Unlike the NFL and its focus on teams,the NBA is more individualistic. Players get more attention partlybecause their faces and expressions on the court are more visible.
In contrast, it doesn't seem that just one great player willchange an NFL team. Former USC tailback Reggie Bush made the NewOrleans Saints better but he didn't arrive there stocked with themarketing and game-changing appeal that a LeBron James delivered inCleveland.
James is one of several players over the past decade to go frombeing a No. 1 pick to truly becoming a franchise-changing player.James, David Robinson, Shaquille O'Neal and Tim Duncan turned out tobe more than All-Stars. While three of them won championships, eachsold tickets and became the identity of their respective teams.
Patrick Ewing, Allen Iverson and Yao Ming became synonymous withtheir teams even though they haven't won titles. What they all havein common is the impact they made on the franchise.
The NBA picked up a potential 1.2 billion fans when the HoustonRockets made Yao, a 7-5 center from China, the No. 1 pick in the2002 draft.
It's no coincidence that 7-footers usually are at center stage offranchise overhauls. Big men are usually can't-miss ingredients whentrying to improve the taste of a franchise.
For decades, it was hip to be a center. But high-flying dunks and3-point bombs rule the NBA today in an ESPN-driven marketing world.
Still, Oden remains the most coveted guy in the draft, mainlybecause he represents what most reasonable analysts of the sporthold dear: There is no substitute for size.
Oden is a throwback, and more importantly, as close to a surething as there is in this lottery.
His size and athleticism give Oden the potential to be the bestdefensive center in the NBA for years to come, especially in themodern era - where centers are almost non-existent.
Winning the right to pick first and going big is a provenformula.
In 1985, the jackpot of the first NBA draft lottery was Ewing, a7-footer out of Georgetown. Ewing went on to play 15 seasons for theKnicks, leading them to the playoffs 13 times. The Spurs, who hadthe fourth-worst record at 28-54 struck gold with Robinson at No. 1in 1987.
The Spurs also went from 22 wins in the 1995-96 season (whenRobinson was hurt) to 56 wins in the 1996-97 season after draftingDuncan. Just two seasons later, after 32 years of falling wellshort, San Antonio won its first NBA title.
In the early 1990s, the expansion Orlando Magic had two top picks- O'Neal in 1992, and Chris Webber (whom they immediately traded forPenny Hardaway) in 1993 - and were in the NBA Finals by 1995.
The Magic went from 21 wins in the 1991-92 season to 41 wins inthe 1992-93 campaign after adding O'Neal. This kind of rapid, draft-based improvement would seem harder to do in the other sports.
Of course, just because a player is taken early in the draft,it's no guarantee of success. Several highly touted college playershave struggled at the next level and never fulfilled their loftyexpectations.
Ralph Sampson (1983), Pervis Ellison (1989), Joe Smith (1995),Michael Olowokandi (1998) and Kwame Brown (2001) were all takenfirst overall in the draft but are now considered busts in the NBA.
So it's not just good enough to be bad. To have the best chanceat the best talent, you have to be really bad.
Unfortunately, the Grizzlies were the NBA's worst.
That's one way of looking at their season.
At least until Tuesday when the Grizzlies' fortune can changeforever.
- Ronald Tillery: 529-2353
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The Grizzlies' lottery picks
Year / Pick / Player, college / Position /
1995 / sixth / Bryant Reeves, Oklahoma State / center /
1996 / third / Shareef Abdur-Rahim, California / forward /
1997 / fourth / Antonio Daniels, Bowling Green / guard /
1998 / second / Mike Bibby, Arizona / guard /
1999 / second / Steve Francis, Maryland / guard /
2000 / second / Stromile Swift, LSU / forward /
2001 / sixth / Shane Battier, Duke / forward /
2002 / fourth / Drew Gooden, Kansas / forward /
2003 / 13th / Marcus Banks, UNLV / guard /
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How the draft lottery works
The 14 teams not making the NBA playoffs are in volved in thelottery process.
Each team is assigned four- number combinations of the numbers 1through 14, with the team having the worst record getting the mostcombinations and the team with the best record getting the fewest.
The Grizzlies have 250 of the possible 1,000 combinations. TheBoston Celtics have the sec ond most combinations, 199. The LosAngeles Clippers have the fewest, 5.
Using a lottery machine, the NBA will select four balls on May 22to determine the select ing order for the first four positions.
If one of the Grizzlies' number combinations doesn't appear inthe first three, they automatically get No. 4.
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Day 2 - NBA DRAFT LOTTERY - May 22, 2007
The Commercial Appeal is counting down the days to the lotterywith trivia about the draft. The first guard drafted first in thelottery era was Allen Iverson by Philadelphia in 1996.
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